Cannabis stocks are up 103% this year — and it's all riding on one hearing

The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) hit its highest level of 2026 this week, capping a run that has it up 103.7% on a one-year net-asset-value basis as of May 31 — well ahead of both the North American Marijuana Index (36.9%) and the S&P 500 (29.8%) over the same stretch. The fund gained another 28% in the last three months alone and now manages $1.13 billion in assets.

The rally is basically one trade: positioning ahead of the DEA's rescheduling hearing, which opened June 29 and could extend 280E tax relief — already granted to medical operators in April — to the rest of the industry, including adult-use companies. Trulieve is the fund's biggest bet at roughly 30% of assets, and its early-June debut on the NYSE under ticker TRLV is the single event most credited with kicking off the run.

The rest of the portfolio is priced for a favorable outcome too. Curaleaf, the world's largest cannabis company by revenue, is MSOS's second-largest holding at 26.3%; Green Thumb Industries sits at 18.2% with analysts pricing in 70% further upside, and smaller names like Verano and Jushi are carrying even bigger implied-upside numbers in the 180–200% range.

That's a lot of stock-price optimism stacked on a hearing that doesn't conclude until July 15 and has, so far, only called witnesses opposed to the reform. A favorable record moves this rally from "priced in" to "justified." An unfavorable one leaves a lot of retail money holding a position built on a headline that never landed — worth remembering before treating MSOS's chart as a preview of what's coming for the actual license holders.